Productivity Forecasting of Newly Added Workers Based on Time-Series Analysis and Site Learning
- 주제(키워드) Productivity forecasting , Site-learning effect , Time-series analysis , Schedule delay , Quantitative methods
- 주제(기타) Construction & Building Technology
- 주제(기타) Engineering, Industrial
- 주제(기타) Engineering, Civil
- 등재 SCIE, SCOPUS
- 발행기관 ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS
- 발행년도 2015
- URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ewha/000000161945
- 본문언어 영어
- Published As http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001002
초록/요약
Adding new laborers during construction is usually considered the easiest option to execute when a schedule delay occurs in a construction project. However, determining the proper number of new laborers to add is quite challenging because newly added laborers' short-term productivity for their first several production cycles could be significantly different from that of existing laborers. While existing studies suggest that newly added laborers' site-learning may cause such a difference, this process has not been considered when forecasting newly added laborers' short-term productivity. In this context, this study presents a method that takes into account site-learning effects and the periodic characteristics of newly added laborers' short-term productivity. The periodic characteristics of productivity are analyzed based on a time-series model of existing laborers' productivity. Then, the impact of the site-learning effect on the productivity is considered based on existing learning-effect theory. An illustrative example demonstrates the accuracy and usefulness of the presented method. Its results indicate that the consideration of the site-learning effect prevents the frequent and counterproductive underestimation of the required number of newly added laborers in establishing an accelerated recovery schedule. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
more