Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime East Asian Temperature Based on Atmospheric Teleconnections
- 주제(키워드) Teleconnections , Statistical forecasting
- 주제(기타) Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
- 설명문(일반) [Yoo, Changhyun] Ewha Womans Univ, Dept Climate & Energy Syst Engn, Seoul, South Korea; [Johnson, Nathaniel C.] Princeton Univ, Cooperat Inst Climate Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; [Chang, Chueh-Hsin] Natl Taiwan Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Taipei, Taiwan; [Feldstein, Steven B.] Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; [Kim, Young-Ha] Ewha Womans Univ, Severe Storm Res Ctr, Seoul, South Korea
- 등재 SCIE, SCOPUS
- 발행기관 AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
- 발행년도 2018
- URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ewha/000000156731
- 본문언어 영어
- Published As http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0811.1
초록/요약
A composite-based statistical model utilizing Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns is developed to predict East Asian wintertime surface air temperature for lead times out to 6 weeks. The level of prediction is determined by using the Heidke skill score. The prediction skill of the statistical model is compared with that of hindcast simulations by a climate model, Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5. When employed individually, three teleconnections (i.e., the east Atlantic/western Russian, Scandinavian, and polar/Eurasian teleconnection patterns) are found to provide skillful predictions for lead times beyond 4-5 weeks. When information from the teleconnections and the long-term linear trend are combined, the statistical model outperforms the climate model for lead times beyond 3 weeks, especially during those times when the teleconnections are in their active phases.
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