Statistical prediction of Sri Lankan rainfall during October to December
- 주제(키워드) Multiple-regression models , Seasonal forecast , OND Sri Lankan rainfall
- 주제(기타) Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
- 설명문(일반) [Karunapala, Pabodini; Yoo, Changhyun] Ewha Womans Univ, Dept Climate & Energy Syst Engn, Seoul, South Korea; [Karunapala, Pabodini] Dept Meteorol, Colombo, Sri Lanka; [Yoo, Changhyun] Ewha Womans Univ, Ctr Climate Environm Change Predict Res, Seoul, South Korea
- 관리정보기술 faculty
- 등재 SCIE, SCOPUS
- 발행기관 INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPT
- 발행년도 2020
- URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ewha/000000174585
- 본문언어 영어
초록/요약
Sri Lanka receives most rainfall during October to December (OND). Here we construct multiple linear regression models to forecast the OND Sri Lankan rainfall during 1979-2012 for lead times of 1 and 2 months. Correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between Sri Lankan OND rainfall and global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Three independent predictors were identified through partial least square regression method which includes the southern Atlantic SST tendency, southern Pacific SST tendency and western Pacific and Maritime Continent SST tendency at two different lead times. Three-year-out cross validation concludes that the multiple linear regression models can produce forecast the OND rainfall forecast at correlation coefficient skill of 0.69 and 0.68 for the 1 and 2 month lead times respectively. The physical processes associated with these three predictors show that they contribute to increase in OND rainfall of Sri Lanka.
more