Probabilistic Estimation of Wind Generating Resources Based on the Spatio-Temporal Penetration Scenarios for Power Grid Expansions
- 주제(키워드) Renewable energy sources , Wind power generation , Probabilistic logic , Power system stability , Indexes , Power grids , Monte Carlo methods , Probabilistic model and estimation , wind generating resources , spatiotemporal penetration scenarios , Monte Carlo simulation , power grid expansion
- 주제(기타) Computer Science, Information Systems
- 주제(기타) Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
- 주제(기타) Telecommunications
- 설명문(일반) [Kim, Gyeongmin; Hur, Jin] Ewha Womans Univ, Dept Climate & Energy Syst Engn, Seoul 03760, South Korea; [Shin, Hunyoung] Sangmyung Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Seoul 03016, South Korea
- 관리정보기술 faculty
- 등재 SCIE, SCOPUS
- OA유형 gold
- 발행기관 IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
- 발행년도 2021
- URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ewha/000000175493
- 본문언어 영어
- Published As http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3052513
초록/요약
The proportion of renewable energy generation is expanding worldwide with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas. According to the 8th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand in South Korea, South Korea reduces traditional energy generation such as nuclear and coal plants and achieves 20% (58.5GW) of renewable energy generation by 2030. Wind Generating Resources (WGRs) are affected by meteorological variables such as temperature, wind speed and wind direction. Specifically, WGRs have uncertainty and variability issues depending on temporal and spatial characteristics. In this paper, we propose the probabilistic estimation of wind generating resources based on the spatiotemporal penetration scenarios for power grid expansion. The data of WGRs are analyzed based on clustering method considering the spatiotemporal penetration scenarios, and the potential scenarios are estimated using Monte Carlo simulation by selecting a representative power distribution probability for each cluster. The proposed estimation model of WGRs will play a key role to develop the hedging strategies of investment decision on power grid expansion planning with high wind power penetrations.
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