초록/요약

Energy consumption in Bangladesh increased for economic, industrial, and digitalization growth. Reductions in conventional sources such as natural gas (54%) and coal (5.6%) are calls to enhance renewable resources. This paper aims to investigate the atmospheric variables for potential wind zones and develop a statistical power-forecasting model. The study-site is Bangladesh, focusing on eight divisions across two regions. First, the southern zone includes Dhaka (Capital), Chittagong, Barishal, and Khulna. The northern regions are Rajshahi, Rangpur, Mymensingh, and Sylhet. This investigation illustrates wind (m/s) speeds at various heights (m) and analyzes the boundary layer height (BLH) from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5). The data is from a period of 40 years from 1979 to 2018, assessing with a climatic base of 20 years (1979 to 2000). The climatological analysis comprises trends, time series, anomalies, and linear correlations. The results for the wind speed (BLH) indicate that the weakest (lower) and strongest (higher) regions are Sylhet and Barishal, respectively. Based on power-curve relationships, a simple power predictive model (SPPM) is developed using global wind atlas (GWA) data (sample: 1100) to estimate the power density (W/m(2)) and found an accuracy of 0.918 and 0.892 for Exponential (EXP) and Polynomial (PN) with mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of 22.92 and 21.8%, respectively. For validation, SPPM also forecasts power incorporating historical observations for Chittagong and obtains correlations of 0.970 and 0.974 for EXP and PN with a MAPE of 10.26 and 7.69% individually. Furthermore, calculations for annual energy production reveal an average megawattage of 1748 and 1070 in the southern and northern regions, with an MAPE of 15.71 and 5.85% for EXP and PN models, except Sylhet. The SPPM's predictability can be improved with observed wind speeds and turbine types. The research wishes to apply SPPM for estimating energy in operational power plants.