초록/요약

Evacuation planning is important for reducing casualties in toxic gas leak incidents. However, most evacuation plans are too qualitative to be applied to unexpected practical situations. Here, we suggest an evacuation route proposal system based on a quantitative risk evaluation that provides the safest route for individual evacuees by predicting dynamic gas dispersion with a high accuracy and short calculation time. Detailed evacuation scenarios, including weather conditions, leak intensity, and evacuee information, were considered. The proposed system evaluates the quantitative risk in the affected area using a deep neural network surrogate model to determine optimal evacuation routes by integer programming. The surrogate model was trained using data from computational fluid dynamics simulations. A variational autoencoder was applied to extract the geometric features of the affected area. The predicted risk was combined with linearized integer programming to determine the optimal path in a predefined road network. A leak scenario of an ammonia gas pipeline in a petrochemical complex was used for the case study. The results show that the developed model offers the safest route within a few seconds with minimum risk. The developed model was applied to a sensitivity analysis to determine variable influences and safe shelter locations. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd