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인구구조와 직․간접 주식투자 간 관계 분석: 노년세대를 중심으로

Analysis on the Relationship between Demographic Structure and Direct and Indirect Stock Investment: Focused on old Generation

초록/요약

최근 주식투자 인구가 확대되고 있어 투자자에 대한 이해가 중요해지고 있다. 본 연구는 주식투자자를 직접과 간접 투자자로 구분하고 이들 수요에 세대별 인구구조가 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 주요 분석 내용은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 세대별 인구구조가 직․간접 주식투자 수요에 미치는 영향이 상이하게 나타났다. 특히 노년 세대 규모는 직접 주식투자 수요에 양(+)의 영향을 미쳤으며, 이는 생애주기 가설과 달리 직접 주식투자에 대한 노년 세대의 수요가 있음을 의미한다. 둘째, 노년 세대의 시작연령을 60세에서 75세까지 1세씩 상향하여 분석한 결과, ‘73세 이상’의 노년 세대까지 직접 주식투자에 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 60~73세의 인구의 직접 주식투자에 대한 수요가 지속됨을 의미한다. 반면, 간접 주식투자 수요에는 세대별 인구비중이 유의한 영향을 미치지 않았다. 셋째, 노년 세대와 기대수명 증가율의 ‘상호변수(interaction variable)’는 직접 주식투자 수요에 유의하게 음(-)의 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 기대수명 증가에 따른 장수위험(longevity risk) 등으로 노년 세대의 직접 주식투자에 대한 수요가 감소하는 것으로 보인다. 본 연구는 노년 세대의 직접 및 간접 투자에 대한 이해도를 제고하였다는 점에서 의의가 있으며, 타겟데이트펀드(Target Date Fund) 등 금융상품의 설계에서도 활용될 수 있다.

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초록/요약

It has become more important to understand investor behaviors as the size of stock investor increases in Korea. Individuals invest in stocks in two ways: direct and indirect. For example, individuals can invest in stocks through publicly placed equity funds which invest principally in stocks. According to the life cycle, older investors will have a lower demand for equity compared to middle-aged investors due to risk aversion increasing with age. The life cycle of risk aversion is widely accepted in academia, as well as in the marketplace for practical investment advice. On the other hand, 2011-2018 Household Finance Welfare Survey by Statistics Korea says that the median of household owner’s asset by three generation, i.e young, middle and old, is 226.72 million won and 492.28 million won and 161.85 million won respectively. In contrast, according to the 2017 Korean Labor and Income Panel Study by Korean Labor Institute, the financial income per month of three generation is about 0.1 million won, 0.3 million won and 0.4 million won, respectively. It implies that the old generation has the most financial income. This study intends to fill the gap between the life cycle risk-aversion hypothesis and the market observations. This study empirically investigates how demographic structure affects direct and indirect equity demands. For the investigation, first of all, we divide investors into two groups such as direct investors and indirect investors. Second, we increase old generation starting ages from 60 to 75 years old. Main findings are as follows. First, demographic structure gives different impact on direct and indirect equity demands. Particularly old generation size gives significant and positive impact on direct equity demands. This result is against the ‘life cycle risk-aversion hypothesis’ which argues weaker demands for equity from the old generation. Second, through increasing the starting age of old generation by one year, we find that from 60 to 73 age cohort gives positive impact on direct equity demands. Meanwhile we do not find significant impact of demographic structure on indirect equity demands. Lastly, the interaction between life expectancy and old generation size provides negative impact on direct equity demands. It means that longevity from longer life expectancy lessens the demands for equity. Our work improves understanding on old generation’s impact on direct and indirect equity demands. Also the empirical results can be used for designing Target Date Funds. This study shows that direct and indirect investors are different in terms of stock investment behavior. Therefore, we need more investigations in order to enhance the understanding about stock investors particularly for old generation.

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