An Enhanced Performance Evaluation Metrics for Wind Power Ramp Event Forecasting
- 주제(키워드) Forecasting , Wind power generation , Predictive models , Logic gates , Measurement , Wind forecasting , Mathematical models , Performance evaluation , Event detection , Performance evaluation metric , power system security , ramp event forecasting , wind power
- 주제(기타) Computer Science, Information Systems; Engineering, Electrical & Electronic; Telecommunications
- 설명문(일반) [Yu, Solui; Hur, Jin] Ewha Womans Univ, Coll Engn, Dept Climate & Energy Syst Engn, Seoul 03760, South Korea
- 관리정보기술 faculty
- 등재 SCIE, SCOPUS
- 발행기관 IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
- 발행년도 2023
- URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ewha/000000211611
- 본문언어 영어
- Published As https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2023.3313632
초록/요약
As wind power is volatile and intermittent, an increase in the proportion of wind power generation may affect the security of power systems. Accurate wind power generation and ramp forecasting are crucial for reducing operating costs and maintaining the power balance. This study proposed an enhanced performance evaluation metric for wind power ramp event forecasting, and analyzed the forecasting results using this metric. Experimental ramp event forecasting was conducted on wind farms located in Jeju, South Korea by employing an indirect forecasting method for wind power output forecasting. Considering the evaluation of forecasting performance, the accuracy (ACC) was observed to be 0.86 for Case #1 and 0.90 for Case #2. The results highlight the advantages of the proposed metric over the widely used confusion matrix for performance evaluation, which has more detailed and visually based analytical capabilities. The simulation demonstrates that the proposed approach is poised to make a noteworthy contribution in the advancement of tool development, enabling real-time curtailment forecasting and facilitating well-informed decision-making in high wind power scenarios.
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