MJO Influence on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction in the Northern Hemisphere Extratropics
- 주제(키워드) Hindcasts , Madden-Julian oscillation , Operational forecasting , Subseasonal variability , Teleconnections
- 등재 SCIE, SCOPUS
- 발행기관 American Meteorological Society
- 발행년도 2023
- 총서유형 Journal
- URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ewha/000000213906
- 본문언어 영어
- Published As https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0139.1
초록/요약
The impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics are examined using the reforecasts from the S2S Project and Subseasonal Experiment Project (SubX). When forecasts are initialized during an active MJO, extratropical prediction skill becomes significantly higher at 3–4-week windows compared to inactive MJO. Such prediction skill improvement is evident in the 500-hPa geopotential height over the Pacific–North America region and the North Atlantic and in surface temperature over North America, especially when the model is initialized during the MJO phases 6–7 and 8–1. However, the extratropical prediction skill is not modulated by the MJO phases 2–3 and 4–5. This phase dependency is likely determined by the arrival time of the MJO at the Maritime Continent (MC) barrier that substantially enhances the MJO amplitude error. This result suggests that only MJO phases whose convection lies east of the MC are a source of wintertime S2S predictability in the extratropics. © 2023 American Meteorological Society.
more