Process Evaluation of Subseasonal North Atlantic Oscillation Prediction in the ECMWF Ensemble Forecast System
- 주제(키워드) NAO , process , subseasonal prediction
- 관리정보기술 faculty
- 등재 SCIE, SCOPUS
- OA유형 Gold
- 발행기관 John Wiley and Sons Inc
- 발행년도 2024
- URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ewha/000000244526
- 본문언어 영어
- Published As https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111291
초록/요약
This study evaluates the prediction skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern and its associated energy budget as simulated by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble forecast system. By classifying NAO events into high- and low-skill cases, we analyzed the stationarity of NAO patterns and the role of baroclinic energy conversion in NAO prediction. In both positive and negative NAO phases, high-skill cases exhibited more stationary NAO patterns than low-skill cases. The analysis of processes indicates that high-skill NAO cases are due to stronger baroclinic maintenance of NAO, with its initial position at the climatological thermal trough, whereas low-skill NAO cases result from forecast biases in wave propagation from the North Pacific. Specifically, biases in baroclinic energy conversion in the meridional direction from week 2 lead to weak advection of the eddy available potential energy (EAPE), resulting in lower prediction skill. © 2024. The Author(s).
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