Volcanically forced Madden-Julian oscillation triggers the immediate onset of El Niño
- 주제(기타) Multidisciplinary Sciences
- 설명문(일반) [Kim, Hyemi] Ewha Womans Univ, Dept Sci Educ, Seoul, South Korea; [Kim, Hyemi] Stony Brook Univ SUNY, Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA; [Min, Seung-Ki] Pohang Univ Sci & Technol, Div Environm Sci & Engn, Pohang, South Korea; [Min, Seung-Ki] Yonsei Univ, Inst Convergence Res & Educ Adv Technol, Incheon, South Korea; [Kim, Daehyun] Seoul Natl Univ, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Seoul, South Korea; [Kim, Daehyun] Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher & Climate Sci, Seattle, WA USA; [Visioni, Daniele] Cornell Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY USA
- 등재 SCIE, SCOPUS
- OA유형 Gold
- 발행기관 NATURE PORTFOLIO
- 발행년도 2025
- 총서유형 Journal
- URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ewha/000000245584
- 본문언어 영어
- Published As https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56692-2
- PubMed https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39915494
초록/요약
A process-level understanding of the volcanically forced climate response is an urgent challenge due to its similarities to the potential effects of geoengineering techniques. Although the influence of volcanic forcing on El Ni & ntilde;o events has been studied extensively, the mechanisms driving the volcanically-induced immediate onset of El Ni & ntilde;o remain uncertain, with many climate models producing a delayed El Ni & ntilde;o response compared to observations. In this study, using large ensemble simulations that allow us to isolate the impacts of volcanic forcing on the El Ni & ntilde;o response, we demonstrate a mechanism that highlights the central triggering role of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), which has been overlooked in existing literature. Because the land areas surrounding the Indo-Pacific warm pool dry more quickly after a volcanic eruption, the background moisture distribution becomes more favorable for the MJO to propagate eastward from the Indian Ocean into the Pacific. This increases the likelihood of ensemble members having stronger MJO activity in the western Pacific by about 35% compared to non-volcanic years, which subsequently increases the frequency of westerly wind bursts by about 76%, ultimately enhancing the probability of the onset of an El Ni & ntilde;o by about 98% following major volcanic eruptions.
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